IEA announced the timing of the return of oil demand to the pre-crisis level
10:36 14.10.2020 1116
Global oil demand will grow by 5 million bpd in 2021 and return to pre-crisis levels by about 2023, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2020, Interfax reports.
According to the IEA baseline scenario, after 2023, demand will grow by an average of 0.7 million bpd until 2030, although the economic and trade implications of the COVID-19 pandemic mean that demand will remain 2 million bpd lower in 2030 than anticipated a year ago.
"After 2030, global oil demand will plateau, with annual growth slowing to 0.1 million bpd. There is a high degree of uncertainty about the economic recovery, which may be slower than assumed in the baseline scenario," notes IEA.
The IEA notes that demand for oil in advanced economies will recover in the near future, but will never return to pre-crisis levels in the period until 2030.
Thus, it is assumed that by 2025 the demand for oil will grow from 97.9 million bpd in 2019 to 99.9 million bpd, by 2030 - up to 103.2 million bpd, by 2040 - up to 104, 1 million b / d.
At the same time, the demand for oil in the United States will gradually decrease: by 2025 to 17.9 million b / d from 18.5 million b / d in 2019, by 2030 - to 17.5 million b / d, by 2040 - to 15.2 million b / d.
Oil demand in Europe will decrease by 4.7 mln bpd from 2019 to 2040 - to 8.6 mln bpd.
At the same time, demand in the Middle East will grow from 7.5 million b / d in 2019 to 10 million b / d in 2040, in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region from 32.5 million b / d to 37.9 million b / d
0.4 million bpd in 2030 compared to last year’s forecast revised oil demand in India down, but India remains the largest source of oil production growth in the coming decade, mainly due to the use of automotive fuel.
The outlook for China has also been revised downward to reflect declining vehicle sales and a target of new energy vehicle sales by 2025. China's oil demand will peak around 2030 at just over 15 million bpd, but China nevertheless remains an important driver of global oil demand growth in the interim, the IEA notes. Africa and Southeast Asia will also boost oil demand.
“For decades, global oil demand has followed an almost continuous upward trend, only occasionally interrupted by a series of economic downturns. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has hit the oil market with unprecedented scale and ferocity, wiping out nearly a decade of growth in one year. Economies led to a decline in oil demand of more than 20 million bpd in April 2020, hitting motor fuel particularly hard. There were some signs of recovery, but restrictions on air travel, a shift to remote work and robust EV sales continued to weigh on demand for oil, and demand for 2020 as a whole is likely to be about 8 million b / d lower than it was in 2019, "the agency said in a report.
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