By 2024, Turkmenistan will remain the largest exporter of pipeline gas to China with deliveries of more than 45 billion cubic meters per year. This is stated in the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) "Gas 2019". At the same time, it is noted that Russia will deliver 35 billion cubic meters per year to the Celestial Empire during this period.
Also in the report it is reported that by 2024, China will double the import of pipeline gas to 100 billion cubic meters thanks to supplies from Russia and Central Asian countries, mainly from Turkmenistan.
At the same time, imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by China will reach 109 billion cubic meters by 2024 and the country will become the largest buyer of this type of “blue fuel”.
The IEA also expects the United States to become the largest supplier (LNG) by the end of the forecast period. The volume of LNG production in the country in 2024 will reach 113 billion cubic meters per year. Thus, the United States will overtake Australia (107 billion cubic meters per year) and Qatar (105 billion cubic meters). At the same time, over the next five years, the United States will account for more than 80% of new capacities for the liquefaction of natural gas, most of these projects will be launched from 2019 to 2021, the report said.
According to the IEA's forecast, the Asia-Pacific region will account for more than half of the overall growth in demand for natural gas until 2024, with an average growth rate of 4% per year, primarily due to China’s strong economic and strategic desire to develop gas fields (average annual growth is 8% during the forecast period 2018–2024).
Other fast-growing economies in the region — India, Pakistan and Bangladesh — can make a significant contribution to the growth of gas consumption, provided that natural gas remains a competitive and affordable energy source for these markets that are sensitive to price changes, the agency said.
According to the IEA forecast, the global demand for natural gas from 2018 to 2024 will grow by an average of 1.6% annually. The greatest growth will be observed in the APR (4%), Africa (2.7%), in the Middle East (2.1%). In the countries of Central and South America, demand will increase annually by an average of 1.2%, in North America - by 1%. The lowest demand for gas will grow in Europe - by 0.1% - due to the development of renewable energy and limited prospects for domestic and industrial gas consumption.
The world gas production, according to the IEA forecast, will reach 4.332 trillion cubic meters by 2024. The most noticeable growth will be in Africa (2.7% annually), the APR (2.5%) and North America (2.1%). In Central and South America, mining will grow by an average of 1.1% per year, while in Europe it will fall by 3.5%.
The USA will make the largest individual contribution to the growth of world gas production due to the continuous development of shale gas resources, both for the domestic and international markets. Mining in the United States will exceed 1 trillion cubic meters by the end of the forecast period, the IEA said.
“Europe remains the only region with a decline in production over the forecast period due to lower production at aging fields in the North Sea and a gradual cessation of production at the Groningen field in the Netherlands,” explains IEA.
- It is expected that the growing gas shortage in Europe will be covered by both pipeline and liquefied gas from traditional and new sources, the report says.