The oil demand in the world till 2040 will increase by 16,5 percent, up to 111,1 million barrels a day that on 1,7 million barrels a day above last year's assessment; China and India will be the main sources of growth, it is told in the annual forecast of OPEC - World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2040, RIA Novosti reports.
The organization also expects that oil and gas by 2040 will continue to play the leading role in satisfaction of demand for energy, their share in an energy balance will constitute 52 percent. The share of oil of OPEC in the world market, according to the forecast, in 2016-2040 will grow from 34 percent to 37 percent.
According to expectations of OPEC, annual increase in demand for oil after 2035 will be slowed down up to 0,3 million barrels a day whereas in the medium term (in 2016-2022) it constitutes about 1,2-1,3 million barrels a day. By 2022 the oil demand will reach 102,3 million barrels a day that on 2,24 million barrels a day is more than last year's forecast.
"Average growth rate of oil demand will be slowed down up to about 300 thousand barrels a day in 2035-2040 at the expense of a bigger energy efficiency, toughening of power policy in the world and also delays of growth rates of GDP and the population", - it is noted in the forecast.
Oil by 2040 will keep the leading role in a world energy balance, however its share will decrease from 31 percent in 2015 to 27 percent.
Natural gas, on the contrary, will increase the importance, by 2040 it will take the second place in satisfaction of demand for primary energy resources, having pressed coal, and its share will grow from 21 percent to 25 percent.
The most dynamic growth will be shown by renewable energy resources which share in energy balance will reach by 2040 5,4 percent against former 1,4 percent.
The gross requirement in primary energy resources will increase by 35 percent, up to 371,6 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. "It is remarkable that by 2040 over 52 percent of a share in a world energy balance will still occupy oil and gas", - the OPEC emphasizes.
The forecast for the offer in the oil market was also raised - on 1,7 million barrels a day, in 2016-2040 supply of liquid hydrocarbons will grow by 16,2 percent, up to 111,3 million barrels a day. The forecast for deliveries from the countries out of OPEC is also increased: by 2022 they will grow by 8,8 percent, to the 62nd million barrels a day (75 percent of growth is necessary to the USA). Further this growth will be slowed down, the indicator will reach peak in 63,8 million barrels a day in 2027, and then will begin to decrease up to 60,4 million barrels by 2040.
Thus, in long-term prospect OPEC will continue to play a role of an important source of satisfaction of need of additional hydrocarbons for the world. In 2020-2040 in addition 7,7 million barrels a day just of crude oil will be required to deliver by the organizations onto the market.